November 3, 2009
Why I’m Scared
The busier you are, the faster time passes. So right now it feels to me like we’re hurtling towards the day David Cameron will be in Number 10. And i’m increasingly scared.
The first reason I’m scared is because of the Conservative’s rhetoric on economic policy. Tory grassroots have already launched an attack on the Financial Times (that renowned bastion of worker solidarity) for allegedly being biased against Cameron and Osborne. But it’s not just the FT that’s sounding alarm bells about Conservative economic rhetoric.
Think tank Centre:Forum last week released a report on Tory economic proposals. Despite having many political differences with CF, over the past few months I’ve come to respect their economic output – and in particular, their chief economist Giles Wilkes – a great deal. I’ve not had time to read the “Slash and Growth?” report yet, but I have read part of the conclusion posted on Free Thinking Economist:
It may seem odd to urge a future government to care about economic growth. But the Conservative’s extreme aversion to public debt risks producing policies that prioritize deficit reduction over all other objectives. Public debts have risen largely to allow private indebtedness to fall without producing catastrophic consequences for the economy. The prior rise in private indebtedness passed unnoticed by the same Conservative opposition that is now almost hysterically worried about a similar rise in public debt. This makes no sense; if the past few years tell us anything, it is that Britain’s macro-economy can be at far greater risk to private debts than public. . . .
If the next government is to take economic growth as seriously as the deficit, it should consider taking an economic path that allows for slightly more consumption. Japan’s experience during its long struggle against deflation is highly pertinent; twice (in 1997 and 2001) it introduced fiscal reforms to tackle the deficit, and twice achieved the precise opposite.27 Despite being an export-champion, its last fifteen years have been dire. If the next British government proceeds upon the basis of deficit reduction before growth, it risks achieving neither.
The natural reaction to this worrying conclusion about Tory plans is to think “but surely they can’t be so stupid; surely this is all just rhetorical posturing to garner votes, that will be abandoned post-election?” But then if one reads Hopi Sen, such comforting thoughts quickly evaporate.
The second reason I’m scared is to do with Europe, or more precisely, what the Tory attitude to Europe tells us about Cameron.
It’s not so much that Cameron has left the EPP to sit with a bunch of anti-Semites, homophobes and frothing maniacs who want to play Waffen-SS re-enactment (although this is worth repeatedly pointing out). And it’s not even that Merkel and Sarkozy have apparently started briefing against Cameron as being “untrustworthy”. Nor is it the fear that Cameron could become so isolated in Europe – and so desperate to please his grassroots and undercut growing UKIP support – that we are forced to leave the EU. (EU withdrawal may not be feasible or realistically on the cards, but even if it came to pass I’m not sure I’d be wholly distraught, as I don’t really know what I think about the EU overall. Because it’s bloody complicated. Though I do know that its enormous democratic deficits, problems with corruption and monetarist obsession with central bank independence and monetary union unsettle me, and that i’m not going to join the “Europhile” camp just to put smelling-distance between myself and odious prigs like Nigel Farage).
What really bothers me about the Tories and Europe was summed-up by (of all things) The Economist, when discussing the Tories’ new European alliance:
…if this shoddy, shaming alliance is the price [Cameron] was obliged to pay his party for the changes needed to make it seem modern and compassionate, what sort of party is it that Mr Cameron leads? What else will its members demand, and what else—when his popularity and authority wane—will he be obliged to give them, after he becomes prime minister?
Quite.
The third thing that bothers me is two-fold, and concerns opposite extremes of the Tory Party, and relates to the point just made.
At one extreme there is Lord Ashcroft, whom The Observer yesterday revealed may be being primed for a cabinet-level job. As well as Tory deputy-chairman, Ashcroft is a major donor to the Tory Party, who channels money into marginal seats so as to boost Conservative chances. He also recently bought a controlling stake in ConservativeHome, and has a controlling interest in TotalPolitics magazine (and by extension, Iain Dale). Ashcroft not only holds many purse strings, but is apparently attempting to consolidate power and influence within the party by maneouvering to influence its highly vocal and energetic netroots. This worries me. The man who pays the piper calls the tune (although interestingly, the Belize government appears to have objected to this principle recently). I am very concerned by the prospect of unelected Lord Ashcroft being the real power-holder in a Cameron government.
At the other end of extremes, the Tory grassroots appear to give the lie to the notion that Cameron has modernised or changed the nasty party. The idea of All Women Shortlists recently sent the grassroots absolutely cuckoo. Europe is obviously still a bomb waiting to explode inside the party. A while ago grassroots dissidents complained that influential ConservativeHome was “too right-wing”. Although the leadership went into hyper damage-limitation over Dan “60 Year Mistake” Hannan, he has a huge following within Tory grassroots. Unmarried Conservative PPC Liz Truss was recently at the centre of a storm as she faced de-selection by her local party following revelations she had an affair with an existing MP…though there was no hint of a suggestion from the grassroots that the married male MP Mark Field should lose his seat. Tory gut-reaction was straight from the 14th Century: punish the woman.
I could go on.
My fear is that Cameron is simply the presentable face of an unreformed party of many unrepentant Thatcherites, and even greater numbers of socially conservative, small-minded bigots…who are all increasingly coming under the influence of one hands-on billionaire.
So yes, putting all that together makes me scared. And I think I’m right to be.
