March 9, 2011
That Egypt Thing
During the Egyptian uprising, I didn’t have much to say. Far too much was being said already, and little of it well-informed. I was, of course, struck by the fervent optimism and passionate belief espoused by almost all on the Left. For this uprising – we were assured by many – was a truly democratic revolution, by a people yearning to be free. These were Democrats In Waiting, slaving beneath the Yoke of Tyranny. We had only to wait for The People to cast off Their shackles and a New Age of Democratic Freedom* would dawn.
Amidst the excitement and hubristic proclamation, it seemed to me consistently unwise to pass any judgements during the heat of the moment. For three considerations in particular seemed, if anything, to tell in the direction of pessimism about Egypt’s prospects.
Firstly, that the entire Middle East sits atop a pile of what Flying Rodent so aptly labels “democracy kryptonite”, aka oil. Given this particularly pressing truth, the long arm of America was never likely to withdraw its hand. After half a century of careful investment and planning, the US was hardly going to let things go all Venezuela in a key military and economic hotspot. At least, not if it could help it – and so on into the future.
Secondly, and closely connectedly, even the most cursory glance at the political situation during the Egyptian uprising revealed that the army always held the final balance of power. It was clearly with the support of the army that Mubarak would stand, or fall. In the end he fell. And now the army’s ruling council runs Egypt, following what was technically a military coup d’etat. Of course, it is quite possible that the army will cede power following elections in September. But it’s actually unclear whether there will be any elections in September. And as there has been no effective opposition in Egypt for decades, it’s also unclear whether will be any viable political alternatives on offer even if the ballots go ahead.
Furthermore, a kindergarten knowledge of history reminds us that never, ever, anywhere, has a ruling section of society willingly and freely given up power to those beneath it. Political revolutions – by which I mean proper revolutions, not eventualities which see nasty Mr Mubarak go to Sharm el Sheikh and his generals simply take over the running of affairs – are achieved by the forceful and bloody seizure of power by one group from another. The army is highly unlikely to let power go to any whom it does not approve of. Now at this point, note that democracies tend not to flourish when the military is the primary political power within a state. Now further note that for decades the primary source of American leverage over Egypt has come in the form of military aid. Things, to put it mildly, do not point in the direction of Hope and Change.
Thirdly, given that Egypt has no history or tradition or functioning democratic governance, the transition to any such regime is likely to be precarious. This is a country without democratic norms; a country where ordinary people have not yet had time to adapt to a political system which involves putting enormous amounts of trust and responsibility into the hands of parties whom one did not vote for. (Because the logic of democracy is that nobody’s favoured candidates can win every election, every time.) It is a country in which those who hold the strings of power, patronage and influence have not yet evolved the mechanisms of reciprocal deferred trust when out of power. The arrangements whereby electoral losers amongst the elite abstain from recourse to violence and thuggery, on the guarantee that their interests will not suffer too much in the short term and that they’ll get another meaningful shot at power shortly.
All of which is not to say that Egyptians – or Arabs, or Muslims – “cannot do democracy”. That is a piece of crass racism, against which we recall that less than a century ago respectable British individuals in respectable British newspapers urged the folly of democratic systems. Men who called for the imperative of strong rule; the clarity and good governance provided by Messrs Hitler and Mussolini during times of straightened economic woe. But it is to say that democracy is a difficult, complicated thing. It takes time to emerge, and requires favourable historical, geographical, social, economic and political settings. At present, Egypt appears to have none of these – albeit in significant part thanks to the grubby paws of The Land of the Free.
But then blaming everything on America just won’t do, either. For bound-up in the over-excited and premature rhetoric of Democracy and Freedom for Egypt was often the assumption that here was a democratic people simply yearning to be free. The implicit assumption being that They (what, all of them? young and old? rich and poor? muslim and christian?) were really just like Us. And that when They were given power, They would behave just like Us – a situation happily dovetailing with their new Democratic Freedom.**
But recent reports show that this is all a little too lazy. With dead Coptic Christians following religious clashes with sections of the majority Muslim population, this appears to be a society which hasn’t had the good fortune (and placatory economic development) to get beyond the bloody religious frenzies that our own blessed Isles used to play such sanguinary host to. And then there’s the International Women’s Day march in Tahir Square, which saw angry men charging the marchers, dragging them to the floor, beating and sexually harassing them, as police and army watched from the sidelines.
Certainly, these events are too isolated to tell us anything about “Arab culture” (or if you like, “Muslim mores”). Societies, religions, peoples and cultures are complex (and there’s plenty of violent hatred against women in the UK too, let’s not forget). To infer anything from the above in terms of positive substantive content would, again, be crass racism or outright stupidigy. But these happenings are nontheless enough to put the lie to the naively optimistic (and self-servingly convenient) assumption that They are just like Us, sharing Our Values, the outward political expression of which will necessarily be Democracy and Freedom.***
Those whom this piece is primarily aimed at will likely mistake the above for a sort of petty schadenfreude. They will think that I am indifferent about the sufferings and poor prospects of ordinary Egyptians, in service of some wider self-satisfied political cynicism. But that is wrong. I would genuinely like for it to be the case that Egypt could enjoy the prosperity, security and advantage of a nation like Britain (for all its faults). It sincerely saddens me that so many people’s lives must be made abject by forces beyond their control (such as the profitability of the British arms and oil industries). The point, however, is that just because I would like it to be otherwise, it does not mean that it is otherwise. And I adapt my assessments accordingly. I have this funny idea that other people should do the same.
–
*notice the marriage of two complex concepts, introduced unexplained and unsubstantiated as though nothing in the world could be more obvious.
** that conjunction again.
*** in for the third, whatever it actually means.
Phil said,
March 9, 2011 at 11:27 pm
This is smug, cynical and generally unworthy of you. I mean, it all stands or falls by the idea that quite a lot of people have expressed views which are prima facie ridiculous, and which you quite rightly denounce as such:
the naively optimistic (and self-servingly convenient) assumption that They are just like Us, sharing Our Values, the outward political expression of which will necessarily be Democracy and Freedom
The problem is, you don’t tell us who – if anyone – has actually said this. Unless you’ve got anyone specific in mind – and you don’t appear to have – all you’re doing is attacking those stupid people who say those awful things, very much in the style of Nick Cohen.
Your revolutionology is also suspect. You say – with the idle, table-banging hyperbole which is unfortunately typical of this post – that never, ever, anywhere, has a ruling section of society willingly and freely given up power to those beneath it. You then pour scorn on the idea that army rule will lead anywhere good. But this is having your cake and eating it. What tends to happen in a revolutionary situation is precisely that the armed forces refuse to defend the ruling elite and go over to the ‘revolutionary’ side. They may then take over the revolution and turn on the people – it’s happened before. But the simple fact that the president has been replaced by the generals who used to report to him isn’t a sign that a revolution hasn’t taken place – far from it.
I myself reacted to the fall of Mubarak in quite a euphoric tone, saying (among other things) that “what comes next is anybody’s guess … This is where the real struggle starts. But that’s precisely the victory that’s been won: after 30 years of imperialist-imposed stasis, the people of Egypt have won the right to fight their own battles. A clock that was stopped half a lifetime ago has started again.” I don’t feel that I ought to recant that post, even (or especially) after reading yours.
Paul Sagar said,
March 9, 2011 at 11:39 pm
“what comes next is anybody’s guess … This is where the real struggle starts. But that’s precisely the victory that’s been won: after 30 years of imperialist-imposed stasis, the people of Egypt have won the right to fight their own battles. A clock that was stopped half a lifetime ago has started again.”
But this is just the sort of largely vacuous, over-the-top hyperbole that you’ve no right to help yourself to.
Yes, it’s great that Mubarak has gone. And it’s also good that his son won’t be taking over. But it’s not at all clear that anything is going to change in Egypt, at least not substantively. And lots of things seem to point in the direction of pessimism (as above). I can understand the euphoric tone on the night of Mubarak’s demise. But it’s been a few weeks now – and so blind euphoria really won’t do.
Sorry, but I’m not just going to spout platitudes to fit in with the general herd-like mentatlity on the left that revolution=good. Sure, I don’t pick out any individuals to pin the above sorts of positions on – though I reckon if you trawl twitter and the blogosphere you will see what I’m talking about aplenty. But then, even if I’m wrong and in fact the general assessment of recent events in the middle east has been level headed and well-informed…I can only write about how it looks to me. Sorry if you don’t like it.
Mads Langballe said,
March 10, 2011 at 10:08 am
Hi Paul,
Two comments.
“Political revolutions (…) are achieved by the forceful and bloody seizure of power by one group from another.”
From a historical perspective there is the possibility that the ruling group will give up power and implement democratic-ish reforms under the threat of or likelihood violent uprisings or revolution. This was what happened in the March Revolution in Denmark in 1848. In view of the revolutions in France and Germany the King promised to implement a constitution, a constitution (1849) which is still largely in effect.
(On the other hand, though, this did trigger a bloody civil war over the status of the duchies Slesvig-Holstein, 1848-50.)
Concerning your third point on the necessity of democratic values and culture. How do you imagine such a culture and such values being fostered in non-democratic states? Is implementing democratic reforms not a precondition for developing such values in the people? How did it happen in North-West Europe? Enlightened Absolutism?
It might be the case that the military in Egypt will implement limited democratic reforms, which together with the fact that many Egyptians subscribe to “universal” democratic values, or at least seem to do so, will aid further democratic reforms. Informed Egyptians and other people in the Arab world may very well pick up democratic values and culture from their knowledge of Europe and elsewhere.
Are there any knowledge as to whether the people attacking the Women’s Day march or killing Copts are representing the majority of the Egyptian people or minority fringe groups? Such attacks after all are not uncommon in the democratic West (even less common in the recent past), although probably on a smaller scale.
Mads
Agog said,
March 10, 2011 at 1:05 pm
Seems to me there’s a fair chance of Egyptian politics moving somewhat towards that of Turkey (albeit without the whole secular business). I think that would be a good thing, despite all of the latter’s problems. And if anyone wants to voice some encouragement of this – “Woo hoo! Go Egypt!” – why not? Platitudes can be helpful sometimes.
Dr. H.R. Goetting said,
March 10, 2011 at 10:48 pm
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Academic World Community fattened wrong Pig! Chief Paterson is the inheritor of American multi-billion dollar conglomerate Paterson Inc., a globally operating university supplier which doubles as a C.I.A. spy contractor! Chief thief Paterson, using Cold War-era spy tactics, has the command over a hidden espionage archipelago – populated with downright mean spies – stretching across the world from university to university. It’s scary, very scary, I said traumatized. “Shut up” the Chief explained!
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Whenever I hear the Name ‘Paterson’ I reach for my Gun! With his pants at half-mast, Chief Paterson wobbled back and forward like a drunken tip-over doll, his jaws loosened by a bottle of whisky. “We are a covert operations contractor for the C.I.A.”. With a disgusting snort, the wham-bam-boozled C.I.A-Führer cleared his nose and throat simultaneously, laughed hysterically in shrieks and hit with his foot a garbage bin across the floor. ”We are kicking academic ass since five decades” he barked with a demagogy usually reserved for Adolf Hitler!
Collateral Spying! In vicious violation of student and professor privacy, Paterson Inc. is giving the C.I.A. globally thousands and thousands of prying eyes and ears on intelligentsia‘s scientific studies and experiments. Paterson‘s goons also perform more personal screening techniques on You, which means you are strip-searched for biographic and biometric information like a criminal. The intrusive frisking by American contract spies involves soul-theft and surveillance of: Your home life, political activities, race, religion, fingerprints, friends, enemies or any failings, sexual preference, travels, bank accounts, pressing needs for money, computer communications, email contents, research activities/ objectives/ and results. These ghastly assaults on privacy and scientific competence entangle You with millions upon millions of innocents in a web of high stakes espionage. “The intelligence we collect flows into a sort of gigantic encyclopedic software in our computers” bragged the Chief. This is where Paterson’s spies pool their in-depth target dossiers. Millions of overseas scientists have the results of their scientific labor snatched away and the spy-harvest is transferred to U.S. humbug factories – I mean, American universities. Or, God forbid, the C.I.A. dispatches its drones or special operations teams to hunt for ‘high-level’ targets at universities. Chief-Judas didn’t kill anyone. Chief-Judas kills with his treachery!
America‘s espionage at Universities; Organized asymmetrical Combat! The combination of intellectual and high-tech deficits is so dangerous for the U.S., it produces a real witch’s brew, in which America fights fiercely on an enormous scale with legions of trained, well financed contract spies, protected by armed private U.S. security guards – against disadvantaged, open-minded, unsuspecting academicians, scattered at universities around the earth. America‘s cul-de-sac intellectuals need academic emergency medicine, because America‘s annual high-tech trade deficits reached $61 billion in 2008. To predict the needed performance of U.S. science thieves at overseas universities, let‘s use a quantitative macroeconomic model. If Paterson‘s spies steal $1 worth of scientific results, let‘s say in Switzerland, it will produce $1.50 worth of high-tech manufacturing stimulus in America. To salvage its crippled advanced technology industry, the U.S. has to steal about $40.000.000.000,00 – You are right: $40 billion worth in high-tech/science from the rest of the world – every year! Paterson’s contract spies steal it one burglary at a time, at YOUR university laboratory or research center!
Whistle-Blowing on vast Conspiracy! In order to stay in business, C.I.A. espionage troopers such as corrupt Paterson Inc. are NOT SUBJECT to America’s Freedom of Information Act! No freedom of information in the so-called ‘land of the free‘, because Americans have to check their freedom at America’s door. An obscure law allows the C.I.A. to block all congressional and public inquiries into the secret files, the budget, the number of cloak-and-dagger agents and the entire power structure of the Pater$on Shadow Company, a ‘valued asset’ for the C.I.A. and the recipient of a vast, dark stream of dollars from a cold blooded U.S. government with very special interests!
Paterson’s University Supplies; Instruments of Betrayal! Wearing a trench coat and a cowboy hat, the Chief is the world’s largest science thief. Paterson Inc. is stealing every original research-idea and scientific innovation it can find overseas – not to mention thousands of person-years invested. Like spit on academic values and a slap in the face of students and professors, the Paterson spy files are treated as private property by the Chief’s university supplier company. Both the C.I.A. and Paterson Inc. will uphold their secrecy claim over the Paterson Papers similar to the Pentagon Papers, which the U.S. government refuses to declassify. But an outraged academia is ready for answers amidst class cancellations forced by students worldwide to protest the presence of rotten Paterson Inc. on their campus! Are social websites Facebook, Twitter, YouTube going to give young and not-so-young academic protesters the connective muscle to chase U.S. spy Paterson Inc. and its private U.S. security guards off every university on earth? Get Involved!
Betrayal worthy of Judas! That betrayal went so far that Americans were admired for their intelligence – or was it espionage, plain old theft of intellectual property, a.k.a. academic freeloading? America‘s seedy ‘exceptionalism‘ is a double standard for turning stolen ideas into borrowed academic glory at struggling U.S. hinterland universities, who add nothing to science. As a significant espionage personage, the Chief gets a tactical thrill from the collaborative madness between U.S. espionage and U.S. scientists. That kind of mobster cronyism between Paterson Inc. and Plagiarists is a perfect match-up with America’s un-democratic ideals – it‘s the new normal from beyond a banana republic. Scores (one third is my guess) of American university professors ‘Had to Know’ and are profiteering accomplices in this Ponzi scheme of science fraud. It is amazing in what Americans engage in. Shining my flashlight onto America‘s historical Sonderweg gives me nightmares! Since the burly men from beastly Paterson.cia tilted – inch by inch – the global academic playing field in favour of U.S. ’hocus-pocus-scientists’, and if this helps explain America’s unparalleled share of Nobel prizes during that curiously energetic U.S. ’research’ period over the past five decades, synchronized with Paterson’s university espionage history, then so be it!
Putting the Dots together! It’s Morning in America with stunning images of urban decay. The alcoholic Chief – a reliable sources of income for whisky merchants – had just finished vomiting, suffered from a ferocious hang-over and felt a pathological need for homosexual intercourse. Working in the Chief‘s office was as if coming to a U.S. war-of-aggression zone where sexual degradation, torture and rape flourish. As the homosexually harassed male employee of perverted Chief Paterson I unlocked sinister secrets ripe for a journalistic tour de force. Unlike a Germanic spy on tiptoes, my recordkeeping was interrupted by the Chief’s disgusting demonstrations of affection or while his ungentlemanly hands fondled among my pink boxer-shorts!
Hear no Spy, See no Spy, and Speak no Spy? This is the story of Walt Blair Paterson, whose fictional name has become shorthand for an American era of espionage, cowboy capitalism and deceit around the world. How should the University Enemy No. 1 be treated? Will vigilantes unapologetically identify and expose the predator ‘university supplier’, to which ‘Paterson Inc.’ lent its fictional imprint? Will investigative journalists expose more secret operations by Paterson Inc. and its perverse alcoholic blabbermouth Chief? Grab a torch – the clock is ticking! Will a targeted global boycott of Paterson’s products starve the beast into a low-calorie beggar? Is it time to show a little scissor steel and cut to pieces the Chief‘s commercial products? Will Paterson Inc. end up at the university supplier junkyard – sans cash for clunkers? Will justice be done and truth prevail, edged-on by this terrifically entertaining book? Nobody knows, but future answers will be absolutely right!
Yours, Truly
Dr. rer. nat. H. R. Goetting
P.S.
Befitting for a U.S. University Supplier, Paterson Inc. acts as Censor! Mubarak was America‘s dictator in Egypt for 30 years. When on February 18th 2011 the U.S. government called upon the U.S.-backed police state in Egypt to switch the Internet on again, I got the Mubarak treatment from the Chief‘s censorship unit. Using standard operating procedure, the Chief‘s high-tech sociopaths hacked into my universityspy.com website and riddled it with malicious software. My oppressed Internet-presence resembled what is written above. It also offered my investigative eBook [€ 3.95], which does not ask what a U.S. spy contractor can do for you, but asks what you can do against it!
John Carpenter said,
March 11, 2011 at 11:41 am
“Furthermore, a kindergarten knowledge of history reminds us that never, ever, anywhere, has a ruling section of society willingly and freely given up power to those beneath it.”
Really?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12689911
grrl said,
March 11, 2011 at 6:45 pm
Paul, please, could you possibly delete that comment of whoever signs with Dr. Goetting, please.
Please.
Churm Rincewind said,
March 17, 2011 at 3:04 pm
I’m puzzled as to why you should consider oil a major consideration in the politics of Egypt’s future, and especially in connection with US involvement. Although the US, like all industrialised nations, must inevitably be concerned to safeguard its energy supplies, Egypt is in fact a net oil importer following massive increases in its domestic consumption over the past fifteen years or so. So it’s hard to see how or why Egypt’s domestic oil production should be of overwhelming significance in determining US policy.
Any excoriation of US and UK policy towards oil-producing countries would also seem particularly inappropriate at the moment given the support currently being provided to the Gaddafi regime by China and India, which have both treated the current situation as an opportunity to buy as much Libyan oil as possible.
Shuggy said,
March 21, 2011 at 12:23 am
I’m not sure if I’ve got enough historical knowledge to qualify for graduation from the kindergarten in your view but fortunately I’m of a sufficient age that it turns out it isn’t needed to counter your assertion. In my own lifetime I’ve seen the Soviet Union and apartheid South Africa cave in. Not bloodlessly but when these regimes decided they didn’t have the stomach for the necessary blood-letting, they surrendered in a manner as close to willingly as anyone in that position could reasonably be expected to. I suppose one could argue about the former USSR but the notion that regime change in the RSA didn’t involve the passing of power to the ruling class to those below it should be dismissed as absurd. Which brings me to this…
Thirdly, given that Egypt has no history or tradition or functioning democratic governance, the transition to any such regime is likely to be precarious.
You could say this of any country that has made a transition to democracy but anyone with a ‘kindergarten knowledge of history’ can name one or two countries where it has, nevertheless, been successful.
Louisa Loveluck said,
March 23, 2011 at 11:27 pm
@CR – true, the oil argument is problematic but Paul’s right that American strategic concerns take precedence over all else. Egypt remains an important ally to the US for a number of reasons, not least it’s role in the Arab-Israeli peace process and military operations elsewhere in the region. In addition, the regime was more than willing to do the America’s War on Terror dirty work for them. Not an ally they wanted to lose.
Paul Sagar said,
March 23, 2011 at 11:33 pm
That Egypt does not have significant oil reserves itself is hardly decisive. Look at its immediate neighbours to the east and west.
Shuggy: those are hardly counter examples. Do you think the previous elites in those regimes went to live in pauper shacks, giving all their previous wealth to those they had earlier oppressed? No. What happened in South Africa was the negotiation of sunset clauses that entrenched the white ruling class with economic advantages that long persist today, and as for the USSR, if you think the former Party and KGB people all settled down to be nice 9-5 workers at the local Skoda factory, I’ve got news for you.
Just because there is regime change ostensibly from below and emerges without widespread violence, it hardly follows that the former ruling scions sceded power willingly. Rather, the absence of violence is your surest indicator that they didn’t cede power at all – they simply agreed to a reconfiguration of its structure and public presentation.
One Year On « Bad Conscience said,
December 21, 2011 at 12:40 pm
[...] I hate to say I told you so. [...]